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Wednesday 30 April 2025
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On Saturday 3rd of May, one of the world’s great horse races will be held for the 151st time. The Run for the Roses, AKA the Kentucky Derby, has grown into a veritable cultural institution, expanding to become an outright festival (of both racing and cultural events). For atmosphere alone, there’s little to match a trip to Louisville, Kentucky, to experience the party atmosphere before and after the Derby.
While the race is steeped in history, there are always fresh points of discussion in the lead-up to it. For example, this year, there is a lot of scrutiny over the return of legendary trainer Bob Baffert, who will be making an appearance at the Derby for the first time in three years after being suspended for medical violations. Baffert will bring two horses with him for the big race – Citizen Bull and Rodriguez – and there is every chance that he will leave the track as a seven-time winner of the Kentucky Derby.
Despite the focus on Baffert, his horses are somewhere around the middle of the horse betting markets for the Derby. The favourite is the intriguing Journalism, an intriguing horse with a growing reputation. Journalism has four wins from five and really stepped into the limelight after winning the Santa Anita Derby (another venerable US horse race) in early April. There are questions over his candidacy as an outright market leader, so he will have a little bit to prove.
Indeed, bettors over the last several years will be well aware that the Derby – while ostensibly a test of the best thoroughbred 3yos – has been characterised by shock winners, or at least those coming from much further down the card than the favourites. An 80/1 shot, Rich Strike, won in 2022, and the winners have been mostly in double figures in the odds since Justify won in 2018.
That sense that of jeopardy for every runner on the card adds to the appeal of the event. Last year, for instance, NBC reported an audience of 16.7 million for the race – the highest domestic viewing figures since 1989. It’s a good sign for the general health of horse racing in America if people are tuning in. Those closely watching the metrics of the sport’s popularity will be keen to see if the 2025 event can eclipse those numbers.
In terms of an international audience, there is some following in the UK and Europe (Racing TV has the broadcast in the UK), but there is growing interest from Japan, too. The Derby has two positions open to international qualifiers, and Japanese owners and trainers have been aiming for the race. This year, there are two interesting runners – Luxor Café and Admire Daytona – from Japan. The latter is considered a long shot, although that should not rule him out in this race, but the former does have some backing in the betting markets.
There are, of course, a variety of narratives continuing on from the Road to the Kentucky Derby, which is the series of prep races (qualifiers) that decide the chosen field from around 500 candidates by whittling them down to 20. Some horses started the campaign with blistering performances before losing a bit of form, whereas others seem to be peaking at the right time. It’s all set up for a wonderful renewal of one of the truly great horse races.
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